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have their broken down finances to build up again; their morality to re-model; their systems of education to re-organise; their commerce to extend; their agriculture to fecundate; their administrations to reform; their laws to revise. Happy, ah! thrice happy that fabulous, unknown, enviable nation, from whom Heaven has averted the two heaviest curses that can afflict mankindbad laws, and good soldiers. Permit me, gentlemen, to be astonished at the English press; the first press in the world for the extent of its information, for the completeness of its facts, for the largeness of its views, for the science of its detail, and, above all, for its magnificent independenceand yet which affects to know, or which really knows so little of us, although we are separated only by a little bit of a creek, that it attributes to us the most bellicose intentions in the world. Really, if I had not now for many years known that no folks are so foolish as your very clever folks, I should be at a loss to ascribe an origin to these crooked notions you good English entertain of us. They amount simply to this: that Napoleon III. must necessarily blow away a good deal of gunpowder because his uncle, Napoleon I., amused himself pretty considerably in this way. Here is a pretty kind of reason for sensible folks to run their foolish heads against; as though because one man has done such and such a thing at one particular time, it should be absolutely necessary for another man to do the same thing at some other time. I wager a hundred to one that if Alexander, Cæsar, Charlemagne, and Napoleon, any or either of them, suddenly reappeared on earth, they would ride some other hobby than the one that is associated with their names, and that the world would be extremely surprised to see the amiable countenance they would put on. I certainly have not had the honour of a personal acquaintance with Alexander or Cæsar; nor even with Charlemagne; but I did know Napoleon, and I think I may venture to speak for him, for he was a man of genius; and men of genius are so much men of their time, that they themselves make their own time. Well, Napoleon, this great man, the so-called mortal enemy of England, would be astounded at the prodigious greatness of her industrial enterprise, and would be, at the present time, her best, her sincerest

friend and ally; and most assuredly it is not he who would counsel his nephew to seize upon a few tumbledown cottages in Belgium, or some dozen or two mountain ruts of Savoy, instead of mining, ploughing, draining, fructifying, and otherwise turning to the best account, the rich lands of France, and wresting from them wherewith to warm and feed us and our cattle and beasts; to gather in our coal, wine, hay and straw, fruits and wines. If he do not pursue this pacific course, seeking in it his real glory-the only glory worthy of a noble heart-his nephew would be mad, arch mad. Is it at forty-five years of age that, belting himself for the first time with the girdle of war, he is going to make the attempt of rivalling on the battlefield the dazzling but fatal-yes, the fatalglory of the conqueror of Austerlitz and Marengo? And who will dare to assert that to deserve well of France he must baptize his front with the blood of the English?with the blood of you English, who but so recently, and with so much generosity, extended to him the hospitality of proscription. Had he demanded our suffrages only that he might madly throw away the blood and the gold of France on the territories of our neighbours, who are our friends, I don't know what my fellow-citizens would have done; but, as for me, I would have refused him my vote loudly and bluntly. No; it was not to place at our head conquerors and flourishers of the sabre that, twenty years ago, 1-the first, demanded for my fellow-citizens universal and direct suffrage. What do statistics say? Is it our peasantry who cry out for war-they who would lose thousands of strong arms, which must take to the musket exercise instead of that of the plough and the spade, and who would soon have their imposts and taxes doubled and trebled-probably, as you warlike folks will say, much to the advan tage of agriculture? Is it our producers and sellers of wines, oils, wood, haricots, eggs, butter, cheese, old iron-in fact, of every thing-and whose articles would then encumber their cellars, their warehouses, their granaries, and their every available store? Is it the numberless retailers, who, in time of war, for want of customers, would have their bills and promissory notes returned at maturity, protested and dishonoured? Is it the notaries, attorneys, and men of law, the price of whose purchased vocation falls in

value as business is checked? Is it the dealers and traders in oxen, calves, sheep, poultry, who produce these things only when there is money to pay for them: but pray, in time of war, where is there any money? Is it the manufacturers and spinners of silk, and cotton, and wool, who would have to padlock their manufactories and their shops for want of a demand for their wares? Is it the artisan class-the workers in, and exporters of, bronzes, looking-glasses, piecegoods, jewellery, false and real, crystal ware, carpeting? Is it these who are going to risk their fragile elegancies across continents and oceans those elegant nothings which are purchased almost at the price of their weight in gold, in the markets of peace, and only there? Is it the holders of shares of all kinds in railways, steam-boat companies, banks, docks, mines, canals, and the thousand-and-one financial enterprises that give activity to the money-market? Is this the class to clamour for war, in the teeth of a dead certainty that their property and interests will be depreciated till it attains a merely nominal value? And the fundholders in the three, five, four, or four-and-a-half per cents.; is it they? What have they to gain? Nothing but a loss of at least forty per cent. Is it the christian priests, who abhor bloodshed in the fratricidal struggles of kings against kings, and peoples against peoples? Is it our minister of finance, who at the very smallest whisper of war would see, with eyes filled with tears, suddenly dry up before him the double sources of direct and indirect taxation; our exchequer bills no longer negotiable, and our capitalists jealously locking up their strong box with its patent Chubb (for we secure our treasures with your locks), and emigrating to foreign lands, with our money in their fobs, or consenting to lend it only at usurious interest. Is it our excellent frontier inhabitants, who, eating and drinking in peace one evening with their neighbours of the east and the north, are going to set-to the next morning and tear one another to pieces like wild beasts, as they would be, and as you charitably pretend that they are? Is it our workmen who want to go to war with the workmen of Belgium, Italy, Spain, Russia, Germany, England? Is it our artists, our musicians, our comedians, our singers, our philosophers, our professors and their pupils, our mathema

ticians, our writers, our physicians, our lawyers, our poets, our surgeons, chemists, and alchemists? Pooh! Well, if out of this mass, comprising all classes, not one of them desires to make war upon you, nor even to pay for it, who, then, do you expect is going to do it? Perhaps you are going to pay somebody to undertake the task; you are going to beg of them very politely to do you the honour to make a descent upon your coasts, in, say, four flat-bottomed boats, duly armed, manned, and ammunitioned. In so great a hurry are you, I see, to be once, and for the first time in your life, well drubbed, so that you may at length say, "We have been well drubbed, and we are satisfied." Such, then, are a few of the reasons, such are some of the circumstances connected with the commercial, &c., interests of France which would "induce" Louis Napoleon to invade this country!!! Such are the "glorious" prospects held out to Napoleon! Such are the various classes of tradesmen on whom Napoleon can surely count for co-operation in his premeditated attack on England!

As B. S., more particularly, appears to have weighed with such great accuracy the odds in favour of a contemplated invasion of this country, and as he appears to be so sure that Louis must and will fulfil his "destiny,' I would ask him why he has not accepted the Cobden challenge? Although only intended for a local editor, whose fears and information appear to be as firmly grounded as B. S.'s (in his own mind), I feel convinced that, if the latter will forward a copy of his article to the honourable member for the West Riding, that that gentleman (in order to give effect to his own opinions, as also to test the sincerity and to allay the fears of B. S.) will gladly renew the offer; and I feel as confident that B. S. will, like his prototype of the Manchester Guardian, decline it. It is also probable that Mr. Cobden would enter into an agreement with B. S. as he did with Captain Brotherton, viz., to give him £10,000 when Louis Napoleon attempts to invade this country, on condition of his opponent subscribing 1s. per week to the Manchester Royal Infirmary. This would be an excellent opportunity for B. S. to manifest his sympathy with humanity, as well as to give expression to his own convictions.

What is the position of France with regard

to military and naval armaments? Is the senate increasing or disbanding the army? Is there increase in the navy? I suppose it will be objected that, if there is a reduction, it will only be as a cloak to the real intentions and designs of the Emperor towards this country. Let me trouble my readers once more with a few short extracts. When the story of M. Fould's warlike threats and preparations had been repeated again and again, Mr. Ewart, M.P., wrote to that gentleman to inquire if it were true, and received instantly a most courteous reply, in which he says, "I confine myself to declaring to you that I have not armed a single gunboat, stirred a single cannon, or equipped a single soldier. I remain the calm spectator of the enormous expenses which you are making to conjure away an imaginary danger." What an undignified rebuke to the government of this country! Again: Mr. J. D. Powles, who is described as the leading Tory merchant in the city of London, thus writes to one of the morning papers: Having been in Paris for some days within the last few weeks, I found war denounced as the greatest calamity that could befal France. I heard the greatest surprise expressed that persons could be found in England to believe for a moment that France could entertain the insane project of making war on this country. The idea was treated as one so wild and absurd as not fit to form the subject of a serious conversation." This admission comes from one of a class who, of all others, are most prone to give credit to what they hear.

The "extraordinary activity" in the French navy proves to be purely fallacious: and the Times, after diligently propagating these tales, is obliged to say, "We have ascertained from competent evidence that no signs of extraordinary activity prevail in the dockyards. We must also add that we have received from the French Department of Marine a positive statement, that the French navy estimates for the current year will be about forty million francs less than they were in the last year of Louis Philippe's reign." The naval estimates of France in 1847 were 158 millions of francs, and in 1852 117 millions! This comes from the organ who, like B. S., has been led pug-nosed by all on dits of the day. But this is not the first time that there has been such tamperings

with the public credit. I have before me a return, showing that, from 1836 to 1849, there have been additions (over and above the amounts annually voted and expended) for 33,500 sailors and soldiers; and, irrespective of the costs of these, there were, in the years 1845, 1846, and 1849, £3,900,000 voted in the general estimates for warlike armaments. All these additions were made at times when there were disagreements in this or some other countries about our own territories, &c.; but the "panic" soon blew over, the men especially raised for the suppression thereof still remaining. Last year there was another addition to the estimates of £800,000 for 80,000 militia-men, and this year 20,000 more.

One more statement respecting the French army, made by General Sir De Lacy Evans, in the House of Commons, May 4, 1852, will suffice:-"It was stated that there were 400,000 French troops on the opposite shore; but the fact was not so. The actual amount, according to the French army estimates for this year, was 369,000, and from that must be deducted 70,000 for Algiers; so that there went 100,000 men from the number supposed to be the army of France. Then there were 16,000 officers, and 22,000 non-commissioned officers, making 38,000 together, and they were to be deducted, if the number of our own officers-though he could not understand why-were to be deducted from the number of our own force; then there were 28,000 drummers and trumpeters, who ought also on the same principle to be deducted. But there was in the French estimates one class which we had not in ours; they considered as part of their army the infantry and cavalry police, or the gendarmes; they numbered 21,000; but that force was not available for the purpose of invasion; it was absolutely necessary for the local government of France, and carried it on, in fact, more than our police. If, however, that formed part of the French army, then we ought not to lose sight of the 12,000 Irish police, who were quite as good, and in his opinion better. He knew no troops in the world he would count on better than the Irish police; they were not exercised in battalions, but the general way in which they were employed in responsible service made them fit for any duty, and rendered them most valuable troops in case of emergency. Then, look to the number of

Since General Evans stated this, the French army has been reduced by 20,000 men.

men invalided. The average of the British army was 4 per cent., or 3,000 for the whole force; but the number for the whole I must apologize for the excessive length army of France would be 13,500. That of this article; and must more especially number, therefore, must be deducted, and, crave the indulgence of French readers for counting all deductions together, he might having treated this subject in so serious a put them at another 100,000 men in round manner, when all that can be gathered on numbers to be deducted from the 300,000. this question attests the improbability of an There then remained only 200,000; but did invasion of this country by the French Emthe house suppose the whole of that force peror. He is a shrewd man, and knows the would be available immediately for some cost of such an enterprise. It would exhaust ambitious project? No such thing. There-nay, entail a serious debt upon-France; was in the time of Louis Philippe never a it would impede-perhaps irretrievably ruin less garrison in Paris and its neighbourhood the commercial interests of the two counthan from 50,000 to 60,000, and he believed tries; it would involve, above all, the cordial he was underrating it now if he said the co-operation of all classes of the French present number was 70,000. Lyons and the people; and, if such a project as an invasion country around it also required 30,000, and of England were to be undertaken, our seahe believed it was impossible for the French girt position, the tremendous power of our government to leave either of those two great navy, the addition of the army, and, if need cities without garrisons of those amounts, be, the inhabitants of England, would be however ambitious they might be. Thus obstacles (which cannot have escaped the there went another 100,000. What remained? serious attention of the Emperor, if invasion Only 100,000. He would suppose there was be contemplated), which would be almost innothing else to be looked to in France-no surmountable impediments to success. I pity great military power on the frontier. He the credulity of B. S. and his colleagues. would suppose that 100,000 men of the Above all I pity their want of judgment and French army were quite available to be sent discernment, as I also lament the very serious over here some fine summer morning. If language which they have attributed to the they did, he would venture to say that, with Emperor of the French. Whence their inthe deductions that would have to be made formation I know not; nor yet am I aware of before they came into general action with any inducements to lead to a rupture with the British army, they would still be inferior France. If the overthrow of France were to us in number, besides the immense advan- sought, nothing on earth would be more tage we should have in fighting in our own effectual and certain of success than the country, and choosing our own spots for the practical exemplification of the “probability" purpose, with a brave and patriotic popula- of invasion. But to be serious. When are tion to support our army, and thwart in every we to be invaded? It has been predicted way that of an enemy. But there was no during the last few years, and it has not such thing as 100,000 men of the French come yet. "Why tarrieth the wheels of his army available at present. The French had chariot; why is his chariot so long in 80 garrisons to provide for, some of which coming?" What curious prophets B. S. and they could not leave without considerable | Co. are! They have lost all claim to our protection, such as Strasburg, Belfort, Metz, respect and belief. They have now imposed and Lille. He (Sir De Lacy Evans) did not on us so long that we can see through their believe the French government could really "sham." We cannot consent to believe them collect 30,000 men for the purpose supposed." | again.

AFFIRMATIVE ARTICLE.-III.

In the investigation of this subject it will be well to glance, by way of commencement, at the reasons which have been urged against the probability of an attempted invasion of England by France.

J. G. R.

It has been said that the interests of the French people are against an invasion; that it would immediately most seriously damage, if not destroy, their trade and commerce; that it would incalculably increase their debt,

and cause the destruction of thousands of been said and written about our defencelesstheir friends. ness? If he considers the whole as entitled to no credit whatever, he must be a dogged sceptic indeed, the more so as his wish must be in favour of the truth of the representations that have been made. We easily believe that which we wish to be true. Besides, to whom is the enterprise hopeless? To Louis Napoleon? But may he not expect the support of the other absolute powers of Europe? The idea of a coalition against England may before this have crossed his mind. We proceed now to what may be further said in affirmation of the question.

In reply we may ask, Do the French see and feel all this? Even if we were convinced that they did, do we not know that men, both individually and collectively, act every day in opposition to their perceived interests? How few crimes, how few wars, would there have been, if a man's or a nation's course had been decided by real interest! Commerce, debt, friends, life-these, alas! often weigh but little against plunder, rapine, revenge, conquest, glory. Again: However wise the French people may be, when the imperial mind revolves the question, Shall I invade England? it is to be feared that the people's voice will be either but faintly heard, or haughtily and daringly despised.

This leads us to notice the argument that the Emperor's interests are against an invasion; that his throne rests on order and peace, and the consequent prosperity of the masses of the population; that he needs his soldiers to keep down discontent and insurrection at home; that invasion could but end in his overthrow, as, if unsuccessful, the nation would rise against him, and, if successful, the general in command would gather the laurels, and surely undermine his master's power.

In answer, the previous question recurs, Is all this felt and seen? If it be, may not the idea of destiny, the vision of glory, tempt the Prince to run the risk, and leave to fate the task of counterworking the apparent certain issues? May not circumstances arise that will seem to him to make the invasion of England the last die he can throw for popularity and power? Nor is it always the case that the sovereign who himself does not lead his armies is excluded from all the renown of victory and triumph, and from gaining thereby new strength to his throne. The daring that could think of such an enterprise, the wisdom that could plan it, and select the fitting instruments for its accomplishment, are not without merit of their kind; and, under some circumstances, they would exalt the man who displayed them into a demigod, and obtain for him a niche in the Pantheon.

But it is said the attempt would be madness. Invasion!-England conquered! Impossible! The enterprise is hopeless, and Louis Napoleon knows it! Does he? Is it quite evident that he disbelieves all that has

First. The Peninsular campaign, closing after a brief interruption with Waterloo, is not forgotten by the nephew of the hero, whose soldiers were defeated and whose sceptre was broken on its bloody fields; nor is it forgotten by those who have raised the nephew to his present elevation. We may be pardoned if we doubt whether it is forgiven. Some words fell, not very long since, that sounded like "vengeance;" though, perhaps, the speaker bit his lip the moment after. It was too early a betrayal of his dark thoughts. His wont is to plan and plan, and not to speak till he is prepared to act.

Secondly. The Emperor of the French cannot be trusted; no faith can be put in his word; he always masks his designs. "The republic," "the constitution," "the inviolability of the assembly;" these were always on his lips, never in his heart. His oftrepeated oath to preserve them kept not back his hand when it served his purpose to destroy them. "The republic" meant the empire; "the constitution," an armed revolution, to be followed by a despotism; "the inviolability of the assembly," the midnight arrest, the dungeon, the galleys, and Guiana for its wisest, noblest, and most patriotic members. Surely, when such a man talks of peace, we are not uncharitable if we surmise that war is in his heart!

Thirdly. Louis Napoleon shrinks from nothing that promises to further his ends. We have just spoken of perjury. Now, his career shows that when he has anything to gain he laughs at law, riots in robbery, and wantons in the wretchedness of others. The substitution of the imperial edict for his country's laws; the confiscation of the private property of the Orleans family; the imprisonment, spoliation, and banishment of

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