Community Analysis and Planning TechniquesRowman & Littlefield, 1990 - 262 páginas |
Contenido
Extrapolation Technique An Introduction | 3 |
Estimates Projections and Forecasts | 4 |
Extrapolation Procedure | 5 |
Endnotes | 7 |
Alternative Extrapolation Curves | 9 |
Geometric Curve | 12 |
Parabolic Curve | 17 |
Modified Exponential Curve | 19 |
Evaluation | 107 |
Endnotes | 109 |
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES | 111 |
Economic Analysis Techniques An Introduction | 113 |
Economic Base Projection Model | 115 |
Preliminary Considerations | 117 |
Standard Industrial Classification System | 122 |
Endnotes | 123 |
Gompertz Curve | 23 |
Logistic Curve | 25 |
Endnotes | 29 |
Selecting Appropriate Extrapolation Projections | 33 |
Input Evaluation Procedures | 35 |
Output Evaluation Procedures | 42 |
Application of the Evaluation Procedures | 44 |
Evaluation | 45 |
Endnotes | 48 |
THE COHORTCOMPONENT TECHNIQUE | 49 |
CohortComponent Technique An Introduction | 51 |
Population Cohorts | 53 |
Mortality Component | 55 |
Fertility Component | 59 |
Migration Component | 61 |
Endnotes | 64 |
Mortality Component | 65 |
Life Tables | 66 |
Computing OneYear Survival Rates | 71 |
Computing MultipleYear Survival Rates | 73 |
Projecting Surviving Population | 75 |
Projecting Mortality Rates | 77 |
Endnotes | 78 |
Fertility Component | 81 |
Projecting Male and Female Births | 83 |
Projecting Fertility Rates | 86 |
Endnotes | 88 |
Migration Component | 89 |
Estimating TenYear Net Migration | 90 |
Estimating FiveYear Net Migration | 93 |
Projecting Future Net Migration | 95 |
Endnotes | 98 |
CohortComponent Projection Model | 101 |
Selecting Appropriate Projections | 104 |
Assumption and Location Quotient Approaches | 125 |
Assumption Approach | 126 |
Location Quotient Approach | 128 |
Refinements to the Location Quotient Approach | 134 |
Endnotes | 139 |
Minimum Requirements Approach | 139 |
Refinements to the Minimum Requirements Approach | 143 |
Selecting Appropriate Basic Sector Estimates | 148 |
Evaluation of the Alternatives | 154 |
Endnotes | 155 |
ConstantShare and ShiftShare Approaches | 157 |
ConstantShare Approach | 158 |
ShiftShare Approach | 163 |
Evaluation | 172 |
Endnotes | 174 |
Economic Base Projection Model | 177 |
ShortTerm Impact Analysis | 178 |
Projecting Other Variables | 181 |
Stability of the Multipliers | 182 |
Evaluation | 189 |
Endnotes | 191 |
Appendices | 193 |
CurveFittingExtrapolation Procedures | 195 |
Geometric Curve | 201 |
Parabolic Curve | 205 |
Modified Exponential Curve | 209 |
Gompertz Curve | 216 |
Logistic Curve | 224 |
Endnotes | 230 |
Review of Logarithms | 231 |
OBERS Industrial Groups and SIC Codes | 233 |
Bibliography | 237 |
Index | 247 |
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Términos y frases comunes
age interval Agricultural antilog applying Eq areas assumed upper limit base multiplier basic and nonbasic basic employment estimates Census Chapter cohort computed by applying constant-share crosshauled curve equation differences economic base technique employment data employment share equal estimates and projections example expressed in 1,000s Fabricated metals fertility rates forecast FORESTRY future geometric curve Gompertz curve growth rate includes SIC Major industry industry's Isserman Land Economics Leon County linear curve location quotient approach log Yc logarithms logistic curve Major Groups 01 manufacturing migration rates minimum requirements approach minimum shares region modified exponential curve mortality negative nonbasic employment nonbasic sector number of births number of observations observed values odd number parabolic curve partial sum percent population pyramid procedures ratio reciprocal difference result shift-share SIC Division SIC Major Groups Statistics survival rate surviving population Table ten-year term in Eq tion total employment Transport U.S. Bureau Urban Economic West Trenton ΣΧ
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